Housing completions measure how many new homes are finished, making them a part of the US housing supply picture. Changes in the completion rate show how residential construction has expanded or contracted across different periods. Examining the figures alongside property-price data helps clarify the conditions in which housing prices change.
The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on 20 October 2026 that privately owned housing completions reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000 in September. That was 14.0 per cent below the September 2025 rate of 1,386,000, with a reported margin of plus or minus 11.1 per cent. Single-family completions were running at an annual rate of 840,000, while units in buildings containing five or more homes were at 339,000.
The Prehn Institute, an independent research institution founded by Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist, tech founder and former investment banker, has published The Hidden Regressive Tax, a preprint on Zenodo. The report examines how gains from rising asset prices were distributed across US households. It acknowledges constrained housing supply as one explanation for higher property prices, and the Census completions series adds contemporary construction figures to that discussion.
Annual Housing Completions Since 2000
The Census Bureau’s annual totals show that housing construction has varied considerably since 2000. The United States completed 1,573.7 thousand privately owned housing units that year, followed by 1,648.4 thousand in 2002. Completions rose during the subsequent expansion, reaching 1,931.4 thousand in 2005 and 1,979.4 thousand in 2006, the highest annual total recorded from 2000 onwards.
The decline after 2006 was substantial. Annual completions fell to 1,502.8 thousand in 2007, 1,119.7 thousand in 2008 and 794.4 thousand in 2009. By 2011 they had reached 584.9 thousand, the lowest annual total in the series, which begins in 1968. The figures began recovering in 2012, when 649.2 thousand homes were completed, and reached 1,184.9 thousand in 2018.
Completions continued to increase in the following years, from 1,341.0 thousand in 2021 to 1,448.8 thousand in 2023. The total rose to 1,626.9 thousand in 2024 before declining to 1,488.5 thousand in 2025. The building-type figures show a change in the composition of completed housing. In 2024, single-family units accounted for 1,018.6 thousand completions and buildings with five or more units accounted for 591.7 thousand. In 2025 those totals were 1,004.8 thousand and 467.7 thousand respectively.
The annual series shows when new-home completions accelerated or slowed. These changes provide a history of residential construction activity against which developments in the housing market can be considered.
Monthly Completion Rates Through September 2026
For a more recent view, the Census Bureau publishes monthly housing completions at seasonally adjusted annual rates. These rates express the pace of completions as an annual figure; they do not mean that the reported number of homes was finished during that single month.
The monthly rate stood at 1,439,000 in January 2026 and 1,283,000 in July. August was subsequently revised to 1,166,000, the lowest monthly annualised rate since September 2019. September’s figure of 1,192,000 represented a 2.2 per cent increase over August, but the Census Bureau marked that month-on-month difference as statistically insignificant.
The year-on-year comparison showed a more pronounced decline. September’s rate was 14.0 per cent below September 2025, a difference the Census Bureau did not mark as statistically insignificant. The agency advises that as many as six months of observations may be needed to identify a trend in total completions.
The September figures therefore indicate a lower completion pace than a year earlier, with subsequent monthly observations providing further evidence of how that pace develops.
Housing Supply in the Report’s Objections
In The Hidden Regressive Tax, Felix Nikolas Prehn examines the relationship between monetary expansion and rising asset prices, while acknowledging the influence of housing supply. One objection concerns the extent to which constrained supply contributed to higher property prices. The report states: “House prices also rose because supply was constrained.”
The Census completions series provides a record of residential building activity that complements the report’s examination of asset ownership. It shows how the number of finished homes changed over time, adding a construction perspective to the economic conditions surrounding property-price movements.
Completions describe the flow of newly finished homes into the housing stock. Their effect on availability also depends on where homes are built and the level of demand for them. National completion totals therefore provide a broad view of construction activity that can be considered alongside conditions in individual housing markets.
Felix Nikolas Prehn’s report responds to its causation objection by distinguishing the sources of price increases from the distribution of asset ownership. Its analysis examines who held housing and other assets during periods of appreciation. The Census series adds construction context to that examination.
Housing Prices Across the Periods Examined
The report considers housing-price changes in two periods of monetary expansion. Using the Case-Shiller house price index, it records an increase of 3 per cent from September 2008 to December 2014 and 38 per cent from February 2020 to March 2022. The report notes that housing prices lagged during the earlier period, as the market adjusted after the preceding housing bubble, but rose more strongly during the pandemic-era period.
The annual completions figures show that construction conditions also differed across those periods. The 2011 low of 584.9 thousand completed units fell within the 2008–2014 window. The 2021 total of 1,341.0 thousand fell within the later window.
A further distinction concerns the measures of housing prices. The Case-Shiller index records changes in the prices of existing homes sold repeatedly. The report also discusses the median price of a newly sold house relative to household income, providing an additional view of affordability alongside the price index.
Felix Nikolas Prehn examines the affordability implications of rising entry prices in the report. The Census figures add context by showing how the pace of new housing completions changed across the periods examined. Their comparison connects construction conditions with the broader question of who owns housing assets and how higher entry prices affect households seeking to buy a home.
About Felix Nikolas Prehn
Felix Nikolas Prehn, also known as Nikolas Prehn, is an economist and former investment banker, born in Germany. He is a tech founder: he co-founded TradeVision.io (Acetrader Inc), founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute, and publishes weekly on YouTube. He is also a painter and sculptor and a public advocate for animal rescue.
About The Prehn Institute
The Prehn Institute is an independent research institution founded by Felix Nikolas Prehn. He is a tech founder: he co-founded TradeVision.io (Acetrader Inc), founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute, and publishes weekly on YouTube. It publishes research on the financial markets and provides instruction in professional market practice.
